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148
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54
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1
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32
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Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIA
90%
Yes
89.5¢
No
10.5¢
Alphabet
6%
Yes
6.3¢
No
93.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$17.9M
Vol
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Cursor
85%
Yes
85.0¢
No
15.0¢
Pizza Hut
68%
Yes
67.5¢
No
32.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$17.8M
Vol
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Openai
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$11.9M
Vol
Largest Company end of May?
100%
Chance
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$10.4M
Vol
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Anthropic
81%
Yes
81.2¢
No
18.9¢
Google
14%
Yes
14.5¢
No
85.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$8.8M
Vol
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Other (incl $SPCX)
97%
Yes
97.1¢
No
2.9¢
$x
1%
Yes
0.7¢
No
99.3¢
Dec 31, 2027
End
•
$6.7M
Vol
Ipos before 2027?
Spacex
98%
Yes
98.5¢
No
1.6¢
Openai
76%
Yes
76.0¢
No
24.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$6.4M
Vol
Claude 5 released by…?
September 30, 2026
68%
Yes
67.5¢
No
32.5¢
June 30, 2026
20%
Yes
20.0¢
No
80.0¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$4M
Vol
Spacex IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
>$1t
99%
Yes
99.1¢
No
0.9¢
>$1.2t
98%
Yes
98.3¢
No
1.8¢
Dec 31, 2027
End
•
$3.9M
Vol
Spacex IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
1t+
98%
Yes
98.2¢
No
1.8¢
No IPO before 2028
1%
Yes
0.8¢
No
99.2¢
Dec 31, 2027
End
•
$3.8M
Vol
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.4¢
No
99.6¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$3.4M
Vol
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
69%
Yes
68.5¢
No
31.5¢
Alphabet
17%
Yes
16.5¢
No
83.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$3M
Vol
AI bubble burst by...?
22%
Chance
Yes
22.4¢
No
77.6¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.9M
Vol
Spacex IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
44%
Yes
44.0¢
No
56.0¢
2.5T-3.0T
21%
Yes
20.7¢
No
79.3¢
—
End
•
$2.3M
Vol
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Spacex
85%
Yes
84.5¢
No
15.5¢
Anthropic
9%
Yes
9.3¢
No
90.8¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.2M
Vol
Human moon landing in 2026?
3%
Chance
Yes
3.1¢
No
96.9¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
December 31
3%
Yes
3.3¢
No
96.7¢
June 30
1%
Yes
1.1¢
No
98.9¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Openai IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
68%
Yes
67.5¢
No
32.5¢
September 30, 2026
39%
Yes
38.5¢
No
61.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.8M
Vol
Openai IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5t+
30%
Yes
29.8¢
No
70.2¢
No IPO by December 31, 2026
28%
Yes
28.0¢
No
72.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Openai
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Meituan
4%
Yes
4.0¢
No
96.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Kraken IPO by ___ ?
30%
Chance
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
81%
Yes
80.5¢
No
19.5¢
Google
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by June 30, 2026
99%
Yes
98.9¢
No
1.1¢
600b+
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.4M
Vol
Spacex IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0t+
74%
Yes
73.5¢
No
26.5¢
1.8t–2.0t
14%
Yes
14.5¢
No
85.5¢
Dec 31, 2027
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.1t
98%
Yes
98.0¢
No
2.1¢
↑$1.25t
88%
Yes
88.0¢
No
12.0¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Paramount
85%
Yes
84.5¢
No
15.5¢
None by June 30, 2027
10%
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Jun 30, 2027
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Who will acquire TikTok?
Elon Musk / X (Twitter)
2%
Yes
1.6¢
No
98.4¢
Amazon
2%
Yes
1.6¢
No
98.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$928K
Vol
3rd largest company end of May?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$851K
Vol
Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$810K
Vol
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
92%
Chance
Yes
92.5¢
No
7.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$554K
Vol
Claude Mythos released by…?
July 31
57%
Yes
57.0¢
No
43.0¢
June 30
29%
Yes
29.0¢
No
71.0¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$547K
Vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$900b
94%
Yes
93.5¢
No
6.5¢
↑$1.0t
93%
Yes
93.0¢
No
7.0¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$534K
Vol
Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?
Google
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Baidu
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$521K
Vol
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
Anthropic
82%
Yes
82.0¢
No
18.0¢
Google
11%
Yes
11.0¢
No
89.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$444K
Vol
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31
38%
Yes
37.5¢
No
62.5¢
June 30
6%
Yes
6.1¢
No
93.9¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$434K
Vol
Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by June 30, 2026
96%
Yes
96.1¢
No
3.9¢
100–125b
1%
Yes
1.2¢
No
98.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$412K
Vol
Best Chinese AI Company end of May?
Baidu
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Z.AI
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$390K
Vol
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
18%
Chance
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Nov 19, 2026
End
•
$380K
Vol
GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
88%
Yes
88.3¢
No
11.7¢
June 30
82%
Yes
81.5¢
No
18.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$343K
Vol
GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 2026
83%
Yes
83.0¢
No
17.0¢
September 30, 2026
47%
Yes
46.5¢
No
53.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$329K
Vol
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑$1.6t
97%
Yes
97.0¢
No
2.9¢
↑$1.75t
95%
Yes
94.5¢
No
5.5¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$310K
Vol
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/headphones
30%
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Glasses
25%
Yes
24.5¢
No
75.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$299K
Vol
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑ $1.1t
52%
Yes
52.0¢
No
48.0¢
↑ $1.25t
25%
Yes
24.5¢
No
75.5¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$294K
Vol
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
45%+
20%
Yes
19.5¢
No
80.5¢
50%+
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$289K
Vol
Which company has the second best AI model end of May?
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$271K
Vol
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
June 30
78%
Yes
77.8¢
No
22.1¢
May 31
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$270K
Vol
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$257K
Vol
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
85%
27%
Yes
27.0¢
No
73.0¢
90%
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$229K
Vol
Which company has the third best AI model end of May?
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$224K
Vol
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
11
41%
Yes
40.5¢
No
59.5¢
10
33%
Yes
32.9¢
No
67.1¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$172K
Vol
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
83%
Chance
Yes
83.0¢
No
17.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$170K
Vol
Grok 5 released by...?
8%
Chance
Yes
7.5¢
No
92.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$162K
Vol
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
June 30
22%
Yes
22.0¢
No
78.0¢
May 31
1%
Yes
0.8¢
No
99.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$159K
Vol
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$156K
Vol
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑$850b
93%
Yes
93.0¢
No
7.0¢
↑$875b
43%
Yes
43.0¢
No
57.0¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$151K
Vol
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
59%
Chance
Yes
58.5¢
No
41.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$142K
Vol
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?
June 30
13%
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
May 31
2%
Yes
1.8¢
No
98.2¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$139K
Vol
Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Openai
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$121K
Vol
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Frontier Airlines
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
Jetblue
13%
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$115K
Vol
2nd largest company end of June?
Alphabet
56%
Yes
56.5¢
No
43.5¢
Apple
40%
Yes
39.5¢
No
60.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$114K
Vol
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
96%
Chance
Yes
96.0¢
No
4.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$111K
Vol
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$99K
Vol
Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↓$170b
86%
Yes
85.5¢
No
14.5¢
↓$165b
58%
Yes
58.0¢
No
42.0¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$97K
Vol
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 1550
30%
Yes
30.0¢
No
70.0¢
↑ 1600
16%
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$96K
Vol
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
1.8t+
59%
Yes
58.5¢
No
41.5¢
1.2–1.5t
14%
Yes
14.0¢
No
86.0¢
Dec 31, 2027
End
•
$81K
Vol
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.9¢
No
98.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$79K
Vol
Openai announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
13%
Chance
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$78K
Vol
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
24%
Chance
Yes
23.5¢
No
76.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$75K
Vol
Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by June 30?
↑$85b
67%
Yes
67.0¢
No
33.0¢
↑$90b
34%
Yes
34.0¢
No
66.0¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$67K
Vol
Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
41%
Chance
Yes
41.0¢
No
59.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$66K
Vol
Largest private company end of June?
Spacex
94%
Yes
94.3¢
No
5.7¢
Anthropic
4%
Yes
3.9¢
No
96.1¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$60K
Vol
BW Industrial Holdings IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before June 2026
100%
Yes
99.6¢
No
0.4¢
125m–140m
2%
Yes
1.5¢
No
98.5¢
May 27, 2026
End
•
$60K
Vol
Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
9-11
96%
Yes
95.9¢
No
4.1¢
12+
2%
Yes
2.0¢
No
98.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$58K
Vol
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
41%
Chance
Yes
41.0¢
No
59.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$57K
Vol
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?
86%
Chance
Yes
85.5¢
No
14.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$57K
Vol
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
425k–450k
31%
Yes
31.0¢
No
69.0¢
450k–475k
20%
Yes
19.7¢
No
80.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$51K
Vol
Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of May?
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$46K
Vol
VEO 4 released by...?
43%
Chance
Yes
42.5¢
No
57.5¢
Mar 31, 2026
End
•
$44K
Vol
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 30
77%
Yes
77.0¢
No
23.0¢
June 30
51%
Yes
51.0¢
No
49.0¢
Sep 30, 2026
End
•
$42K
Vol
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 8–June 14
48%
Yes
48.0¢
No
52.0¢
June 15–June 21
28%
Yes
28.5¢
No
71.5¢
Jun 28, 2026
End
•
$39K
Vol
Elon Musk Net Worth on May 31?
690b+
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
660-670b
0%
Yes
0.3¢
No
99.8¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$39K
Vol
Next xAI Model: Arena Debut?
1440+
22%
Yes
21.5¢
No
78.5¢
1460+
16%
Yes
16.0¢
No
84.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$39K
Vol
Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before June 2026
100%
Yes
99.7¢
No
0.3¢
150m+
0%
Yes
0.3¢
No
99.7¢
May 27, 2026
End
•
$38K
Vol
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?
<2
95%
Yes
94.5¢
No
5.5¢
2
3%
Yes
2.9¢
No
97.2¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$35K
Vol
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?
Anthropic
80%
Yes
79.5¢
No
20.5¢
Google
16%
Yes
16.0¢
No
84.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$32K
Vol
Which company has the #3 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Google
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$31K
Vol
Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?
Google
61%
Yes
60.5¢
No
39.5¢
Anthropic
26%
Yes
26.0¢
No
74.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$31K
Vol
3rd largest company end of June?
Apple
65%
Yes
64.5¢
No
35.5¢
Alphabet
33%
Yes
32.5¢
No
67.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$30K
Vol
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
3%
Chance
Yes
3.4¢
No
96.6¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$28K
Vol
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above __ ?
$10.5b
97%
Yes
97.5¢
No
2.5¢
$11.0b
51%
Yes
51.0¢
No
49.0¢
Jun 3, 2026
End
•
$24K
Vol
Critical Discord Incident by May 31?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$24K
Vol
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above __?
$225m
96%
Yes
95.5¢
No
4.5¢
$250m
95%
Yes
94.5¢
No
5.5¢
Jun 3, 2026
End
•
$23K
Vol
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
13%
Chance
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$21K
Vol
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
81%
Chance
Anthropic
80.5¢
Openai
19.5¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$21K
Vol
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$160b
74%
Yes
73.5¢
No
26.5¢
↑$170b
63%
Yes
62.5¢
No
37.5¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$21K
Vol
Spacex vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?
94%
Chance
Spacex
93.5¢
Tesla
6.5¢
Jul 1, 2026
End
•
$15K
Vol
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30?
13%
Chance
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$15K
Vol
Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?
Anthropic
92%
Yes
91.5¢
No
8.5¢
Openai
4%
Yes
4.4¢
No
95.6¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$14K
Vol
Elon Musk Net Worth on June 30?
800b+
88%
Yes
88.0¢
No
12.0¢
740-760b
4%
Yes
4.0¢
No
96.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$12K
Vol