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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
25%
Yes
25.3¢
No
74.8¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Yes
8.9¢
No
91.0¢
Nov 7, 2028
End
•
$1.2B
Vol
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
31%
Yes
31.4¢
No
68.5¢
Marco Rubio
27%
Yes
27.5¢
No
72.5¢
Nov 7, 2028
End
•
$646.7M
Vol
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
18%
Yes
18.3¢
No
81.8¢
Gavin Newsom
16%
Yes
15.8¢
No
84.2¢
Nov 7, 2028
End
•
$611.3M
Vol
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
77%
Yes
77.0¢
No
23.0¢
July 31
42%
Yes
41.5¢
No
58.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$232.5M
Vol
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
60%
Yes
60.0¢
No
40.0¢
June 30
3%
Yes
2.8¢
No
97.3¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$121.5M
Vol
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
41%
Yes
40.5¢
No
59.5¢
Flávio Bolsonaro
28%
Yes
28.3¢
No
71.7¢
Oct 4, 2026
End
•
$91.8M
Vol
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
67%
Yes
67.3¢
No
32.6¢
Delcy Rodríguez
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$89.4M
Vol
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella
24%
Yes
23.5¢
No
76.5¢
Édouard Philippe
18%
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Apr 30, 2027
End
•
$86.5M
Vol
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Keiko Fujimori
76%
Yes
75.5¢
No
24.5¢
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
23%
Yes
23.2¢
No
76.8¢
Apr 12, 2026
End
•
$58.6M
Vol
Iran ceasefire continues through...?
100%
Chance
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
—
End
•
$54.9M
Vol
Fed Decision in June?
No change
98%
Yes
98.2¢
No
1.8¢
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.1¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$51.1M
Vol
Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
26%
Yes
25.9¢
No
74.1¢
June 15
18%
Yes
17.8¢
No
82.2¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$48.8M
Vol
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
14%
Yes
14.5¢
No
85.5¢
September 30
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$47.4M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$45.8M
Vol
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Chong Won-oh
84%
Yes
83.5¢
No
16.5¢
Oh Se-hoon
18%
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Jun 3, 2026
End
•
$44.2M
Vol
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
July 31
72%
Yes
71.5¢
No
28.5¢
June 30
56%
Yes
56.5¢
No
43.5¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$42.4M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$38.3M
Vol
Colombia Presidential Election
Abelardo de la Espriella
67%
Yes
66.5¢
No
33.5¢
Iván Cepeda Castro
34%
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
Jun 21, 2026
End
•
$33.9M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
Chance
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$33.3M
Vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.7¢
No
93.3¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$31.5M
Vol
Starmer out by...?
December 31
73%
Yes
72.5¢
No
27.5¢
July 31
40%
Yes
40.0¢
No
60.0¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$30.2M
Vol
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
68%
Yes
67.7¢
No
32.4¢
Tom Steyer
20%
Yes
19.7¢
No
80.3¢
Nov 3, 2026
End
•
$29.1M
Vol
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
June 30
57%
Yes
57.5¢
No
42.5¢
June 15
38%
Yes
37.5¢
No
62.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$27.8M
Vol
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
June 30
4%
Yes
3.6¢
No
96.4¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$24.3M
Vol
What will happen before GTA VI?
GPT-6 released
53%
Yes
53.0¢
No
47.0¢
New Rihanna Album
53%
Yes
52.5¢
No
47.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$22.5M
Vol
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
June 30
67%
Yes
66.5¢
No
33.5¢
June 7
35%
Yes
34.5¢
No
65.5¢
—
End
•
$21.7M
Vol
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
Donald Trump
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
Oct 10, 2026
End
•
$19.2M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
14%
Chance
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$19.1M
Vol
Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
27.5¢
No
72.5¢
June 30
6%
Yes
6.0¢
No
94.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$15.8M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
10%
Chance
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Mar 31, 2026
End
•
$14.2M
Vol
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
43%
Yes
42.5¢
No
57.5¢
July 31
28%
Yes
28.5¢
No
71.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$13.2M
Vol
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
34%
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
Naftali Bennett
32%
Yes
32.0¢
No
68.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$12.8M
Vol
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
70%
Yes
70.3¢
No
29.8¢
Reza Pahlavi
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$12.6M
Vol
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
6%
Chance
Yes
6.3¢
No
93.7¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$11.3M
Vol
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
56%
Yes
55.5¢
No
44.5¢
New People (NL)
32%
Yes
32.5¢
No
67.5¢
Sep 20, 2026
End
•
$9.5M
Vol
Next Prime Minister of Denmark?
Mette Frederiksen
90%
Yes
89.5¢
No
10.5¢
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
3%
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Mar 24, 2026
End
•
$9.3M
Vol
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.2¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$9.3M
Vol
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Andy Burnham
57%
Yes
56.8¢
No
43.3¢
No Next PM in 2026
23%
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$8.9M
Vol
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
44%
Yes
44.1¢
No
55.9¢
R Senate, D House
33%
Yes
32.6¢
No
67.3¢
$8.9M
Vol
Trump out as President before 2027?
12%
Chance
Yes
11.5¢
No
88.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$8.8M
Vol
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
5%
Chance
Yes
4.7¢
No
95.3¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$8.5M
Vol
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
1%
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.8¢
Oil Sanction Relief
1%
Yes
1.1¢
No
98.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$8.4M
Vol
Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
No meeting by June 30
94%
Yes
94.2¢
No
5.9¢
Russia
1%
Yes
1.4¢
No
98.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$8M
Vol
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Iván Cepeda Castro
74%
Yes
74.0¢
No
26.0¢
Abelardo de la Espriella
26%
Yes
25.7¢
No
74.3¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$8M
Vol
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
No Meeting by June 30
43%
Yes
42.9¢
No
57.1¢
Pakistan
40%
Yes
39.6¢
No
60.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$7.8M
Vol
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
46%
Yes
45.5¢
No
54.5¢
R Senate, D House
35%
Yes
34.5¢
No
65.5¢
Nov 3, 2026
End
•
$7.4M
Vol
Fed Decision in July?
No change
92%
Yes
91.5¢
No
8.5¢
25 bps increase
6%
Yes
5.8¢
No
94.3¢
Jul 29, 2026
End
•
$7.1M
Vol
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
82%
Yes
81.5¢
No
18.5¢
Republican Party
20%
Yes
19.5¢
No
80.5¢
Nov 3, 2026
End
•
$6.9M
Vol
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10%
Chance
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$6.5M
Vol
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
77%
Yes
76.5¢
No
23.5¢
September 30, 2026
63%
Yes
62.5¢
No
37.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$6.4M
Vol
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
June 30
17%
Yes
16.5¢
No
83.5¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.3¢
No
99.7¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$6M
Vol
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
800-839
59%
Yes
58.7¢
No
41.3¢
840-879
40%
Yes
40.1¢
No
59.9¢
Jun 1, 2026
End
•
$5.8M
Vol
Trump out as President by June 30?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$5.8M
Vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Economy • Fed
0 (0 bps)
67%
Yes
67.3¢
No
32.7¢
7 (175 bps)
25%
Yes
25.3¢
No
74.7¢
$5.4M
Vol
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.7¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$4.9M
Vol
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen Bass
64%
Yes
63.5¢
No
36.5¢
Spencer Pratt
23%
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Jun 2, 2026
End
•
$4.4M
Vol
Elon Musk # tweets May 26 - June 2, 2026?
140-159
41%
Yes
41.1¢
No
58.9¢
120-139
31%
Yes
30.6¢
No
69.3¢
Jun 2, 2026
End
•
$4.3M
Vol
Epstein client list released by...?
5%
Chance
Yes
4.8¢
No
95.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4.3M
Vol
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4.1M
Vol
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
36%
Chance
Yes
35.5¢
No
64.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4.1M
Vol
Israel closes its airspace by...?
June 30
16%
Yes
16.0¢
No
84.0¢
June 15
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$3.9M
Vol
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Trump
4%
Chance
Yes
3.9¢
No
96.2¢
$3.6M
Vol
Trump out as President by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$3.5M
Vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
September 30
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
June 30
5%
Yes
5.3¢
No
94.7¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$3.4M
Vol
US strike on Mexico by...?
19%
Chance
Yes
19.0¢
No
81.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$3.4M
Vol
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.5¢
No
98.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$3M
Vol
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
18%
Chance
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.9M
Vol
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$2.8M
Vol
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 2026
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
June 30, 2026
3%
Yes
3.0¢
No
97.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.7M
Vol
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
13%
Chance
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.6M
Vol
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
Before 2027
8%
Yes
8.0¢
No
92.0¢
June 30
1%
Yes
1.1¢
No
99.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
14%
Chance
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
49%
Yes
48.5¢
No
51.5¢
June 30
6%
Yes
5.5¢
No
94.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
23%
Chance
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.4M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
50%
Chance
Yes
49.5¢
No
50.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$2.2M
Vol
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
44%
Yes
43.5¢
No
56.5¢
October 31
33%
Yes
32.5¢
No
67.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
US strike on Colombia by...?
19%
Chance
Yes
18.5¢
No
81.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
Daegu Mayoral Election Winner
Choo Kyung-ho
89%
Yes
89.0¢
No
11.0¢
Kim Boo-kyum
12%
Yes
11.5¢
No
88.5¢
Jun 3, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Will Trump dance on...?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.9¢
No
98.1¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
4.0¢
No
96.0¢
June 30
1%
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.8¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
June 30
2%
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.7¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
24%
Chance
Yes
24.0¢
No
76.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
73%
Chance
Yes
72.5¢
No
27.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Makerfield by-election Winner
Andy Burnham
75%
Yes
74.5¢
No
25.5¢
Robert Kenyon
23%
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Jun 18, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Eugen Tomac
36%
Yes
36.4¢
No
63.6¢
Alexandru Nazare
32%
Yes
31.6¢
No
68.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
8%
Chance
Yes
7.5¢
No
92.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Elon Musk # tweets May 29 - June 5, 2026?
140-159
22%
Yes
21.6¢
No
78.3¢
160-179
18%
Yes
18.0¢
No
82.0¢
Jun 5, 2026
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
30%
Chance
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
47%
Chance
Yes
47.0¢
No
53.0¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
13%
Chance
Yes
13.1¢
No
87.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
100%
Yes
99.7¢
No
0.4¢
May 31
100%
Yes
99.6¢
No
0.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
18%
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
June 30
2%
Yes
2.1¢
No
98.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.9¢
No
98.1¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
June 30
27%
Yes
27.0¢
No
73.0¢
May 31
4%
Yes
3.7¢
No
96.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
3%
Chance
Yes
3.3¢
No
96.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.2M
Vol
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.9¢
No
98.1¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Will Alberta join the US?
4%
Chance
Yes
4.4¢
No
95.6¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$940K
Vol
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$928K
Vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Global
December 31
12%
Yes
11.8¢
No
88.1¢
June 30
2%
Yes
1.6¢
No
98.5¢
$813K
Vol
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$752K
Vol
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 31
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
June 30
2%
Yes
2.0¢
No
98.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$677K
Vol
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
December 31
21%
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
June 30
11%
Yes
11.2¢
No
88.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$626K
Vol
Starmer out by..?
Global
December 31
73%
Yes
73.0¢
No
27.1¢
June 30
13%
Yes
13.1¢
No
86.9¢
$595K
Vol
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
61%
Chance
Yes
61.1¢
No
38.9¢
$254K
Vol
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
Trump
10%
Chance
Yes
9.8¢
No
90.1¢
$249K
Vol
SAVE Act signed into law in 2026?
8%
Chance
Yes
8.3¢
No
91.6¢
$138K
Vol
Trump out as President before 2027?
Trump
9%
Chance
Yes
9.0¢
No
91.0¢
$107K
Vol
Colombia Presidential Election
Abelardo de la Espriella
85%
Yes
84.5¢
No
15.5¢
Iván Cepeda Castro
13%
Yes
13.1¢
No
86.9¢
$96K
Vol
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Republican Party
54%
Yes
53.5¢
No
46.5¢
Democratic Party
47%
Yes
46.5¢
No
53.5¢
$75K
Vol
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Global
5%
Chance
Yes
5.1¢
No
94.8¢
$66K
Vol
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Elections
84%
Chance
Yes
83.5¢
No
16.5¢
$13K
Vol