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ceasefire
All
100
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91
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
73%
Yes
72.5¢
No
27.5¢
July 31
40%
Yes
39.5¢
No
60.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$233M
Vol
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
61%
Yes
61.0¢
No
39.0¢
June 30
3%
Yes
2.7¢
No
97.3¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$121.5M
Vol
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
67%
Yes
67.3¢
No
32.6¢
Delcy Rodríguez
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$89.7M
Vol
Iran ceasefire continues through...?
100%
Chance
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
—
End
•
$55.6M
Vol
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
June 30
4%
Yes
3.6¢
No
96.4¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Mar 31, 2026
End
•
$49.1M
Vol
Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
25%
Yes
25.4¢
No
74.6¢
June 15
17%
Yes
17.3¢
No
82.7¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$48.8M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$45.8M
Vol
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
July 31
72%
Yes
72.0¢
No
28.0¢
June 30
55%
Yes
54.5¢
No
45.5¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$42.4M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$38.3M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
99.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$33.6M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
Chance
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$33.3M
Vol
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.7¢
No
93.3¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$31.5M
Vol
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
June 30
57%
Yes
57.5¢
No
42.5¢
June 15
38%
Yes
37.5¢
No
62.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$27.8M
Vol
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
June 30
4%
Yes
3.8¢
No
96.2¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$24.3M
Vol
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
June 30
66%
Yes
65.5¢
No
34.5¢
June 7
34%
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
—
End
•
$21.8M
Vol
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
June 30
2%
Yes
1.7¢
No
98.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$19.9M
Vol
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
11%
Yes
10.6¢
No
89.4¢
Donald Trump
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
Oct 10, 2026
End
•
$19.2M
Vol
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
14%
Chance
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$19.1M
Vol
Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
27.5¢
No
72.5¢
June 30
7%
Yes
7.0¢
No
93.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$15.9M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
10%
Chance
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Mar 31, 2026
End
•
$14.2M
Vol
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
42%
Yes
41.5¢
No
58.5¢
July 31
28%
Yes
28.5¢
No
71.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$13.2M
Vol
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
34%
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
Naftali Bennett
31%
Yes
30.5¢
No
69.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$12.8M
Vol
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
70%
Yes
70.3¢
No
29.8¢
Reza Pahlavi
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$12.6M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
30%
Chance
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$11.9M
Vol
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
6%
Chance
Yes
6.3¢
No
93.7¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$11.3M
Vol
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
16%
Chance
Yes
16.0¢
No
84.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$10.1M
Vol
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.9¢
No
93.2¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$9.8M
Vol
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.2¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$9.3M
Vol
Trump out as President before 2027?
12%
Chance
Yes
11.5¢
No
88.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$8.8M
Vol
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
5%
Chance
Yes
4.8¢
No
95.2¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$8.5M
Vol
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Oil Sanction Relief
1%
Yes
0.8¢
No
99.2¢
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
1%
Yes
0.7¢
No
99.4¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$8.4M
Vol
Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
No meeting by June 30
94%
Yes
94.4¢
No
5.6¢
Russia
1%
Yes
1.4¢
No
98.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$8M
Vol
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
No Meeting by June 30
47%
Yes
47.3¢
No
52.7¢
Pakistan
40%
Yes
39.6¢
No
60.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$7.8M
Vol
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.8¢
No
99.3¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$6.6M
Vol
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10%
Chance
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$6.5M
Vol
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
77%
Yes
76.5¢
No
23.5¢
September 30, 2026
63%
Yes
62.5¢
No
37.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$6.4M
Vol
US military action against Cuba by...?
54%
Chance
Yes
53.5¢
No
46.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$5.2M
Vol
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.7¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$4.9M
Vol
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4.1M
Vol
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
39%
Chance
Yes
38.5¢
No
61.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4.1M
Vol
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
14%
Chance
Yes
14.0¢
No
86.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$4M
Vol
Israel closes its airspace by...?
June 30
16%
Yes
16.0¢
No
84.0¢
June 15
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$3.9M
Vol
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 30
10%
Yes
10.2¢
No
89.8¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.4¢
No
99.6¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$3.8M
Vol
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
September 30
14%
Yes
14.0¢
No
86.0¢
June 30
5%
Yes
5.3¢
No
94.7¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$3.4M
Vol
US strike on Mexico by...?
19%
Chance
Yes
19.0¢
No
81.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$3.4M
Vol
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
1%
Chance
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.1¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$3.2M
Vol
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.5¢
No
98.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$3M
Vol
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
16%
Chance
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.9M
Vol
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$2.8M
Vol
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 2026
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
June 30, 2026
3%
Yes
2.8¢
No
97.3¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.7M
Vol
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
13%
Chance
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.6M
Vol
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
14%
Chance
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
49%
Yes
48.5¢
No
51.5¢
June 30
6%
Yes
6.0¢
No
94.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
24%
Yes
24.0¢
No
76.0¢
June 30
4%
Yes
4.3¢
No
95.7¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.4M
Vol
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
23%
Chance
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.4M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
48%
Chance
Yes
47.5¢
No
52.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$2.2M
Vol
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
44%
Yes
43.5¢
No
56.5¢
October 31
32%
Yes
32.0¢
No
68.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Jun 15, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
US strike on Colombia by...?
19%
Chance
Yes
18.5¢
No
81.5¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
July 31
16%
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
June 30
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$2M
Vol
Russian strike on Poland by...?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.9¢
No
97.2¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$2M
Vol
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
20+
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
40+
2%
Yes
1.8¢
No
98.2¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$2M
Vol
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
7%
Chance
Yes
7.0¢
No
93.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 30
13%
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
June 15
10%
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?
June 30
2%
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.7¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Apr 30, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
24%
Chance
Yes
24.0¢
No
76.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
5.5¢
No
94.5¢
June 30
1%
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.1¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
73%
Chance
Yes
73.0¢
No
27.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
May 31
100%
Yes
99.7¢
No
0.4¢
June 30
100%
Yes
99.6¢
No
0.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 31
64%
Yes
64.0¢
No
36.0¢
June 30
16%
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.6M
Vol
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
99.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
UAE
1%
Yes
1.4¢
No
98.6¢
Bahrain
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
8%
Chance
Yes
7.5¢
No
92.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.4M
Vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
30%
Chance
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
June 30
9%
Yes
8.5¢
No
91.5¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
99.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
47%
Chance
Yes
47.0¢
No
53.0¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
US forces enter Venezuela again by...?
13%
Chance
Yes
13.1¢
No
87.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
June 30
30%
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
May 31
5%
Yes
5.0¢
No
95.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
18%
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
June 30
2%
Yes
2.1¢
No
98.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
3%
Chance
Yes
3.3¢
No
96.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.2M
Vol
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.7¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?
June 30
7%
Yes
7.0¢
No
93.0¢
May 31
0%
Yes
0.4¢
No
99.6¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$1M
Vol
India strike on Pakistan by...?
22%
Chance
Yes
21.5¢
No
78.5¢
Dec 31, 2025
End
•
$950K
Vol
Will Alberta join the US?
4%
Chance
Yes
4.3¢
No
95.7¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$944K
Vol
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
September 30
13%
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
May 31
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$924K
Vol
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
December 31
53%
Yes
53.0¢
No
47.0¢
September 30
21%
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$870K
Vol
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
June 30
43%
Yes
43.0¢
No
57.0¢
May 31
1%
Yes
1.3¢
No
98.7¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$845K
Vol
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
29%
Chance
Yes
29.0¢
No
71.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$796K
Vol
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$752K
Vol
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10
96%
Yes
96.2¢
No
3.9¢
10-20
3%
Yes
2.9¢
No
97.2¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$740K
Vol
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$706K
Vol
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
1.8¢
No
98.2¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$677K
Vol
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 31
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
June 30
2%
Yes
2.0¢
No
98.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$677K
Vol
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
December 31
21%
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
June 30
10%
Yes
10.2¢
No
89.8¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$628K
Vol
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
4%
Chance
Yes
3.6¢
No
96.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$577K
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
81%
Chance
Yes
81.0¢
No
19.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$430K
Vol