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Strait of Hormuz
All
104
Trade War
4
Fed Rates
21
Inflation
22
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40
GDP
17
Global Rates
30
Taxes
8
Treasuries
1
Consumer
1
Housing
9
Fed Decision in June?
No change
98%
Yes
98.2¢
No
1.8¢
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.1¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$51.1M
Vol
Microstrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
December 31, 2026
89%
Yes
88.5¢
No
11.5¢
June 30, 2026
72%
Yes
72.5¢
No
27.6¢
Jan 1, 2027
End
•
$37M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
99.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$33.6M
Vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
68%
Yes
68.3¢
No
31.8¢
1 (25 bps)
19%
Yes
18.5¢
No
81.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$31M
Vol
Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIA
90%
Yes
89.5¢
No
10.5¢
Alphabet
6%
Yes
6.3¢
No
93.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$17.9M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
30%
Chance
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$11.9M
Vol
Largest Company end of May?
100%
Chance
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$10.4M
Vol
Fed Decision in July?
No change
92%
Yes
91.5¢
No
8.5¢
25 bps increase
6%
Yes
5.8¢
No
94.3¢
Jul 29, 2026
End
•
$7.1M
Vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Economy • Fed
0 (0 bps)
67%
Yes
67.3¢
No
32.7¢
7 (175 bps)
25%
Yes
25.3¢
No
74.7¢
$5.4M
Vol
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Rates • Fed
30%
Chance
Yes
30.4¢
No
69.6¢
$5.3M
Vol
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
69%
Yes
68.5¢
No
31.5¢
Alphabet
17%
Yes
16.5¢
No
83.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$3M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
48%
Chance
Yes
47.5¢
No
52.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$2.2M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
7%
Chance
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
Jun 15, 2026
End
•
$2.1M
Vol
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
20+
7%
Yes
6.5¢
No
93.5¢
40+
2%
Yes
1.8¢
No
98.2¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$2M
Vol
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
28%
Yes
28.0¢
No
72.0¢
October Meeting
22%
Yes
21.9¢
No
78.0¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$1.9M
Vol
Fed Decision in June?
Fed
No change
98%
Yes
98.0¢
No
2.0¢
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
0.9¢
No
99.2¢
$1.6M
Vol
US recession by end of 2026?
21%
Chance
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
Jan 31, 2027
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↓ 3.25%
26%
Yes
25.5¢
No
74.5¢
↓ 3.0%
10%
Yes
9.5¢
No
90.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.5M
Vol
Fed rate hike in 2026?
35%
Chance
Yes
35.0¢
No
65.0¢
Dec 9, 2026
End
•
$1.4M
Vol
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Pause–pause–pause
98%
Yes
98.2¢
No
1.8¢
Pause–pause–cut
2%
Yes
1.7¢
No
98.3¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4%
98%
Yes
97.7¢
No
2.4¢
Above 4.5%
62%
Yes
61.5¢
No
38.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.1M
Vol
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3%
Chance
Yes
3.1¢
No
96.9¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$920K
Vol
3rd largest company end of May?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$851K
Vol
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Sam Altman - OpenAI
13%
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
12%
Yes
11.5¢
No
88.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$694K
Vol
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
75%
Yes
74.5¢
No
25.5¢
5.0–6.0%
22%
Yes
21.9¢
No
78.0¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$684K
Vol
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase
93%
Yes
93.0¢
No
7.0¢
No change
7%
Yes
6.8¢
No
93.3¢
Jun 11, 2026
End
•
$549K
Vol
Which banks will fail by June 30?
BNY
3%
Yes
3.1¢
No
96.9¢
Santander
3%
Yes
2.8¢
No
97.3¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$513K
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
81%
Chance
Yes
81.0¢
No
19.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$430K
Vol
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
32%
Yes
31.5¢
No
68.5¢
6.0%
13%
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$417K
Vol
May Inflation US - Annual
4.3%
43%
Yes
42.5¢
No
57.5¢
4.2%
40%
Yes
39.5¢
No
60.5¢
Jun 10, 2026
End
•
$323K
Vol
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
15%
Chance
Yes
15.0¢
No
85.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$283K
Vol
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$278K
Vol
Bank of England decision in June?
No change
97%
Yes
97.0¢
No
2.9¢
25 bps increase
2%
Yes
2.3¢
No
97.8¢
Jun 18, 2026
End
•
$252K
Vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Fed
↑ 5.0%
100%
Yes
99.9¢
No
0.1¢
↑ 5.25%
99%
Yes
99.0¢
No
1.0¢
$244K
Vol
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8%
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
5.0%
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$236K
Vol
Bank of Japan Decision in June?
25 bps increase
88%
Yes
88.3¢
No
11.8¢
No change
11%
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
Jun 16, 2026
End
•
$219K
Vol
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%
48%
Yes
48.4¢
No
51.6¢
3.7%
45%
Yes
44.5¢
No
55.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$216K
Vol
Will gas hit __ by end of May?
↑ $4.70
3%
Yes
3.4¢
No
96.7¢
↑ $4.60
3%
Yes
3.0¢
No
97.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$186K
Vol
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease
86%
Yes
85.5¢
No
14.5¢
No Change
15%
Yes
14.5¢
No
85.5¢
Jun 16, 2026
End
•
$177K
Vol
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?
↓ 1.7m
3%
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
↑ 1.9m
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$133K
Vol
ECB rate hike in 2026?
97%
Chance
Yes
96.6¢
No
3.4¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$125K
Vol
2nd largest company end of June?
Alphabet
56%
Yes
56.5¢
No
43.5¢
Apple
40%
Yes
39.5¢
No
60.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$114K
Vol
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.1m
98%
Yes
98.0¢
No
2.1¢
1.2m
75%
Yes
75.0¢
No
25.0¢
Feb 28, 2027
End
•
$112K
Vol
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
12%
Chance
Yes
11.5¢
No
88.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$105K
Vol
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
2%
Chance
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$99K
Vol
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Rigetti
90%
Yes
89.6¢
No
10.4¢
D-Wave
82%
Yes
82.0¢
No
18.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$95K
Vol
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?
350M
74%
Yes
73.5¢
No
26.5¢
300M
3%
Yes
3.3¢
No
96.7¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$95K
Vol
Fed Decision in September?
No change
75%
Yes
74.5¢
No
25.5¢
25 bps increase
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Sep 16, 2026
End
•
$72K
Vol
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
18%
Chance
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$57K
Vol
Bank of Russia decision in June?
Decrease
86%
Yes
85.5¢
No
14.5¢
No Change
14%
Yes
14.5¢
No
85.5¢
Jun 19, 2026
End
•
$57K
Vol
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
12%
Chance
Yes
12.4¢
No
87.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$53K
Vol
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change
99%
Yes
98.7¢
No
1.3¢
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
1.1¢
No
98.9¢
Jun 10, 2026
End
•
$51K
Vol
Argentina Monthly Inflation - May
2.2–2.4%
53%
Yes
52.5¢
No
47.5¢
≤2.1%
21%
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
Jun 11, 2026
End
•
$49K
Vol
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$47K
Vol
May Inflation US - Monthly
0.5%
51%
Yes
51.0¢
No
49.0¢
0.6%
23%
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Jun 10, 2026
End
•
$44K
Vol
China Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5%
32%
Yes
31.5¢
No
68.5¢
0.6 – 1.0%
22%
Yes
22.0¢
No
78.0¢
Jan 10, 2027
End
•
$44K
Vol
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
4.00% to 4.49%
43%
Yes
42.5¢
No
57.5¢
2.50% to 2.99%
37%
Yes
37.0¢
No
63.0¢
Jan 8, 2027
End
•
$42K
Vol
Price of Dozen Eggs in May?
$2.25–$2.50
51%
Yes
50.5¢
No
49.5¢
$2.00–$2.25
48%
Yes
48.0¢
No
52.0¢
Jun 10, 2026
End
•
$40K
Vol
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9%
51%
Yes
51.0¢
No
49.0¢
4.9-5.2%
35%
Yes
35.0¢
No
65.0¢
Jul 16, 2026
End
•
$39K
Vol
Elon Musk Net Worth on May 31?
690b+
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
660-670b
0%
Yes
0.3¢
No
99.8¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$39K
Vol
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
13%
Chance
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$36K
Vol
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
No Change
97%
Yes
96.7¢
No
3.4¢
Increase
3%
Yes
3.4¢
No
96.6¢
Jun 16, 2026
End
•
$33K
Vol
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
54%
Chance
Yes
53.5¢
No
46.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$32K
Vol
3rd largest company end of June?
Apple
65%
Yes
64.5¢
No
35.5¢
Alphabet
33%
Yes
32.5¢
No
67.5¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$30K
Vol
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5%
34%
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
2.0–2.5%
23%
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
Jan 29, 2027
End
•
$30K
Vol
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
0
69%
Yes
69.0¢
No
31.0¢
1
16%
Yes
15.5¢
No
84.5¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$27K
Vol
Bank of Korea decision in July?
Increase
61%
Yes
61.0¢
No
39.0¢
No Change
39%
Yes
38.5¢
No
61.5¢
Jul 16, 2026
End
•
$24K
Vol
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
BMO
10%
Yes
10.1¢
No
90.0¢
Deutsche Bank
8%
Yes
8.1¢
No
92.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$23K
Vol
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?
1%
Chance
Yes
1.4¢
No
98.6¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$20K
Vol
People's Bank of China rate change in May?
No Change
100%
Yes
100.0¢
No
0.1¢
Increase
0%
Yes
0.1¢
No
100.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$19K
Vol
US bank failure by May 31?
0%
Chance
Yes
0.1¢
No
99.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$17K
Vol
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change
97%
Yes
96.7¢
No
3.4¢
Decrease
5%
Yes
4.5¢
No
95.5¢
Jun 25, 2026
End
•
$15K
Vol
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
25%
Chance
Yes
24.5¢
No
75.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$13K
Vol
Elon Musk Net Worth on June 30?
800b+
88%
Yes
88.0¢
No
12.0¢
740-760b
4%
Yes
4.0¢
No
96.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$12K
Vol
Argentina Annual Inflation 2026
25-29.9%
33%
Yes
33.0¢
No
67.0¢
30.0-34.9%
23%
Yes
22.7¢
No
77.3¢
Jan 10, 2027
End
•
$10K
Vol
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
46%
Chance
Yes
45.5¢
No
54.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$9K
Vol
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026
46.0–48.9
31%
Yes
30.5¢
No
69.5¢
49.0–51.9
18%
Yes
18.0¢
No
82.0¢
Jun 26, 2026
End
•
$8K
Vol
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase
83%
Yes
83.0¢
No
17.0¢
No Change
13%
Yes
12.5¢
No
87.5¢
Jul 7, 2026
End
•
$8K
Vol
What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on May 31?
1.173 - 1.18m
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
1.194 - 1.209m
1%
Yes
1.2¢
No
98.8¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$7K
Vol
What will the median home value in the US be on May 31?
<432k
99%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
438 - 440k
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$7K
Vol
Bank of Canada Decision in July?
No Change
90%
Yes
89.5¢
No
10.5¢
25 bps increase
7%
Yes
7.0¢
No
93.0¢
Jul 15, 2026
End
•
$6K
Vol
What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?
<1.228m
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
1.238 - 1.249m
2%
Yes
2.1¢
No
97.9¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$6K
Vol
What will the median home value in Miami be on May 31?
1.136 - 1.161m
99%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
>1.286m
3%
Yes
2.5¢
No
97.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$6K
Vol
What will the median home value in Chicago be on May 31?
<344k
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
348 - 349k
0%
Yes
0.4¢
No
99.7¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$5K
Vol
What will the median home value in New York City be on May 31?
602 - 607k
99%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
>631k
0%
Yes
0.4¢
No
99.7¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$5K
Vol
Bank of Israel Decision in July?
Decrease
62%
Yes
61.5¢
No
38.5¢
No Change
39%
Yes
39.0¢
No
61.0¢
Jul 6, 2026
End
•
$5K
Vol
What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on May 31?
484 - 487k
100%
Yes
99.5¢
No
0.5¢
>492k
1%
Yes
0.5¢
No
99.5¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$4K
Vol
UK Recession in 2026?
33%
Chance
Yes
33.0¢
No
67.0¢
Mar 31, 2027
End
•
$4K
Vol
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
55%
Yes
54.5¢
No
45.5¢
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
21%
Yes
21.0¢
No
79.0¢
Jan 31, 2027
End
•
$4K
Vol
US bank failure by June 30?
6%
Chance
Yes
6.0¢
No
94.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$3K
Vol
May Unemployment Rate
4.3%
37%
Yes
36.5¢
No
63.5¢
4.4%
28%
Yes
28.0¢
No
72.0¢
Jun 5, 2026
End
•
$3K
Vol
What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on May 31?
559 - 566k
55%
Yes
54.5¢
No
45.5¢
>598k
47%
Yes
47.0¢
No
53.0¢
May 31, 2026
End
•
$3K
Vol
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change
86%
Yes
86.0¢
No
14.0¢
25 bps Increase
11%
Yes
11.0¢
No
89.0¢
Jul 23, 2026
End
•
$2K
Vol
Japan recession in 2026?
34%
Chance
Yes
33.5¢
No
66.5¢
Mar 31, 2027
End
•
$2K
Vol
JOLTS Job Openings — April 2026
6.8m–6.9m
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
6.9m–7.0m
19%
Yes
18.8¢
No
81.2¢
Jun 2, 2026
End
•
$2K
Vol
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?
8%
Chance
Yes
8.0¢
No
92.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$2K
Vol
ISM Manufacturing PMI - May 2026
52.0–52.9
22%
Yes
22.0¢
No
78.0¢
53.0–53.9
20%
Yes
20.0¢
No
80.0¢
Jun 1, 2026
End
•
$2K
Vol
Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY - May 2026
5.0%–5.9%
49%
Yes
48.5¢
No
51.5¢
6.0%–6.9%
34%
Yes
34.0¢
No
66.0¢
Jun 11, 2026
End
•
$1K
Vol
Bank of Japan Decision in July?
No change
72%
Yes
71.5¢
No
28.5¢
25 bps increase
30%
Yes
29.5¢
No
70.5¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$1K
Vol
ISM Services PMI - May 2026
54.0–54.9
49%
Yes
49.0¢
No
51.0¢
49.0–49.9
49%
Yes
48.5¢
No
51.5¢
Jun 1, 2026
End
•
$1K
Vol
Will USD hit ___ Indonesian rupiah by June 30?
↑ 17,800
95%
Yes
95.3¢
No
4.7¢
↑ 18,000
57%
Yes
57.0¢
No
43.0¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$1K
Vol
Bank of Russia decision in July?
Decrease
76%
Yes
75.5¢
No
24.5¢
No Change
23%
Yes
23.0¢
No
77.0¢
Jul 24, 2026
End
•
$1K
Vol
Core CPI YoY - May 2026
3.0%
56%
Yes
56.5¢
No
43.5¢
3.2%
44%
Yes
43.5¢
No
56.5¢
Jun 10, 2026
End
•
$700
Vol
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?
0.4-0.6%
45%
Yes
45.0¢
No
55.0¢
≤0.0%
41%
Yes
40.5¢
No
59.5¢
Jul 30, 2026
End
•
$507
Vol